Black Saturday....(keo)

JON CARDINELLI says the All Blacks will rack up 50 points this Saturday if they maintain a high level of hunger and focus.


The Wallabies would have surpassed 50 points last week had Robbie Deans not compromised their rhythm by making a series of substitutions on the hour.


Deans was wise to pull his star players from the field given that the result and bonus point were already in the bag, but this allowed the Boks to add a respectability to the scoreline that was patently undeserved.


Some see the Boks’ late flourish in Sydney as the beginning of a turnaround. Some of these deluded fools are within the Bok set-up. They’re set for a harsh reality check come Saturday when they face an All Blacks side with a point to prove.


The All Blacks cruised to a 60-14 win over Fiji without playing particularly well, and all the talk during the week has been about lifting their standards and building some momentum. A match against a weakened Bok side presents a great opportunity, but that’s not to say the All Blacks will be taking this fixture lightly.


Four top forwards have been rested for this clash, and Graham Henry has given the likes of Adam Thomson, Sam Whitelock, Andrew Hore and Ben Franks an opportunity to prove themselves in a starting capacity. The All Blacks should pick up the win and the bonus point in Wellington, but several players are also playing for World Cup positions.


The Boks’ first-choice pack was hammered in New Zealand last year. The dirt-tracker team was smashed in Sydney last weekend, and have since made some injury-enforced changes. These Bok impostors will have no price against the All Blacks’ heavies.


The hosts will target the Bok scrum, and while the introduction of Jean Deysel will give the Boks more options at the lineout, it won’t be enough to unsettle the All Blacks’ defence. The biggest disappointment last week was at the collisions, and while Deysel will provide more grunt, that pack still lacks the cohesion and accuracy to trouble a well-drilled All Blacks’ defensive line.


The option-taking at 9 and 10 will be crucial. The All Blacks won’t field their best backline this weekend, but the momentum provided by the forwards will allow Jimmy Cowan and Dan Carter multiple attacking options. Ma’a Nonu will lend further impetus as a ball carrier in midfield, while Conrad Smith will be the biggest linebreaking threat.


That Hurricanes’ centre combination will fancy themselves against that Bok 10-12-13 defensive formation. Juan de Jongh is not a weak defender, but Morne Steyn and Adi Jacobs have shown themselves to be susceptible at the highest level.

The Boks will struggle to impose themselves with ball in hand and if their halfbacks kick poorly, the All Blacks have the counter-attack to convert poor punts into points. There will be limited attacking opportunities for the Bok back three, and the gifted Pat Lambie may also be forced to kick for territory.


The severity of the beating will depend on the management of the substitutes. Sonny Bill Williams will inject some power and creativity in the second stanza, but there is a question mark over the reserve forwards and their ability to do the same. We saw how the Wallabies’ effort flagged when Deans removed several key forwards, and Henry will want to avoid a similar problem.


It’s madness to expect a depleted dirt-tracker side to succeed where so many first-choice South African teams have failed. This Saturday’s Test will be about damage control for the Boks. They would do well to keep the world’s best attacking side under 50, and if they could deny them the four-try bonus it would be nothing short of a miracle.


Start praying.

Prediction: All Blacks by 30

All Blacks -15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Adam Thomson, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Ali Williams, 3 Ben Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Subs: 16 Corey Flynn, 17 John Afoa, 18 Jarrad Hoeata, 19 Liam Messam, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Colin Slade, 22 Sonny Bill Williams.

Springboks – 15 Morne Steyn, 14 Bjorn Basson, 13 Adi Jacobs, 12 Juan de Jongh, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Pat Lambie, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Danie Rossouw, 7 Jean Deysel, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Alistair Hargreaves, 4 Gerhard Mostert, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 John Smit (c), 1 Dean Greyling.
Subs: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 CJ van der Linde, 18 Ryan Kankowski, 19 Ashley Johnson, 20 Charl McLeod, 21 Wynand Olivier, 22 Odwa Ndungane.