Good to know the Kiwis still have it in them to occasionally give us a physical beating. They just better not make a habit of it and the comfort of this year’s Tri Nations is the Boks only had to wait a week to redress the embarrassment of being bullied in Auckland. The All Blacks were outstanding and they gave the Boks a touch up they won’t forget for some time. The one difference between he Boks and All Blacks that can’t be disputed is that they do give us the odd klap and we simply beat them. Last year was the most emphatic Bok dominance over the All Blacks, but even then the Boks could not hammer home the point by more than 10 points. In Auckland the 20 points was kind to the Boks and more complete and confident All Black teams would have hurt the Boks even more after leading 20-3 late in the first half. Unlike the Kiwis our boys don’t have to wait another year to fix the Auckland result and I have full confidence the team selected is good enough to win in Wellington, despite the Boks never having won at the WestPac Stadium in three Tests since 2002.
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Given Danie Rossouw’s form I don’t think the Boks lose much with Bakkies Botha out, and they certainly will gain from the more disciplined Rossouw, who has combined well with Victor Matfield at regional and national level. CJ van der Linde is an improvement on Jannie du Plessis and I would have dropped Ricky Januarie and Wynand Olivier and moved Jean de Villiers to inside centre. Unfortunately Olivier just doesn’t seem capable of transferring his outstanding Super Rugby form to the next level. Outside of direct physicality he offered nothing in Auckland and this must be his last chance. If he fails to impress in Wellington it could be that his future lies in the lucrative French club rugby scene. I believe P Divvy has missed a chance to start with Gio Aplon and to involve the exciting Stormers midfielder Juan de Jongh. The latter has a step and steppers trouble any defence. The All Blacks are also more dangerous with Rene Ranger getting his first Test start ahead of the injured Joe Rokocoko, whose isn’t the player of a few years back. Rokocoko has lost pace and doesn’t have the game breaking edge that made him the best finisher in the game between 2003 and 2006. Also good that Israel Dagg is in the match 22. He reminds me so much of Christian Cullen in the way he attacks and for any lover of rugby you want to see a player with that kind of pedigree playing in the biggest Tests.
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I called the All Blacks to win, but win ugly in Auckland. They didn’t only win, they delivered a beating and did it with a brutality that was also beautiful because of the precision in execution. And I have been consistent in saying the Boks will win in Wellington. I still believe this to be the case, although for the first time I am starting to wonder if the class of 2007 has not come full circle. When the Boks won the World Cup in 2007 I felt that squad would peak against the Lions in 2009. They surprised me with their domination of the Tri Nations a month later in winning five from six, but they have never reached those heights subsequently. They were bashed about in Toulouse and poor in Dublin at the end of last year. Yet they were at their worst in Auckland and if they do take a beating in Wellington then Peter de Villiers’s worst nightmare is about to be realized. All teams have a shelf life, and it usually doesn’t accommodate more than four years. John Smit’s World Champions are nearing the end, and while most hoped that end would include next year’s World Cup I am not so sure anymore. Smit, in particular, has to raise his game in Wellington and lead from the front. His performance in Auckland was his worst in a Bok jersey. If Smit can lift his performance it will be contagious and the Bok pack will fire. To beat the All Blacks in Wellington, winning the collisions are non negotiable. The Boks also have to back their outside backs with ball in hand. The recipe is simple enough. Cooking it up is another story. The Boks certainly have the historical capacity to win in New Zealand and I don’t think it is overstating the importance of the match that for many of the Boks this is a game that individually could determine whether or not they are back in New Zealand in 2011 to defend the World Cup.
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My call … Boks by 7 to 10
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Retired Bok winger Ashwin Willemse is an astute analyst and student of back play. It made for a change to hear an analyst disagree with Darren Scott’s emotional outpouring and rants, especially when it came to Jean de Villiers’s performance in Auckland. De Villiers was hardly as bad as was made out to be. He missed a straight tackle on Ma’a Nonu from five metres out, but I’ve seen De Villiers miss those kinds of tackles his entire career. It is the one area of his game that has never been his strongest, but his understanding of the Bok defensive system, especially the tackling in from outside (the Bok defence doesn’t drift, the wings come in on a rush defence, hoping it will force the attack back inside to confront the tackles of Schalk Burger and company) is better than any back in the squad. When dear old Darren proclaimed that De Villiers had become a liability Willemse put him in his place quickly by saying De Villiers could never be a liability to any side. What a revelation to hear a rugby analyst actually speaking his mind and talking with authority, and Willemse knows a couple of things about wing play.
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WP were decent in the Currie Cup win against Free State and the Sharks were bloody terrible in losing to Griquas. John Plumtree has just had his contract extended but more of these kind of results would render any contract meaningless. There is spice in this weekend’s fixtures, with the Bulls visiting Durban, while too much is being made of Western Province’s match against the Lions. Province will win and Lions coach John Mitchell will realize just what he is working with in Johannesburg.
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Congrats to Graeme for their eight wins in nine matches on tour in Australia and New Zealand. Schools rugby is on again this weekend. If you have nothing to do after the Boks win, get down to your nearest school and watch some first XV rugger. It is a great way to spend a Saturday late morning.
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To confirm again, SA Rugby Magazine is available in digital format and for those overseas readers the fantastic news is the cost of a subscription will be the equal to buying one in South Africa. So if you are a subscriber from overseas, you will be saving between R400 and R500 annually by going digital. You can contact Cindy at CindyE@hsm.co.za to subscribe or change your magazine subscription to digital format.
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In the world of Twitter if you don’t follow Will Carling start doing so. He is hilarious, has fantastic insight and his chirps are sure to make you chuckle. And while you are following him, follow my daily tweets on Twitter.com/Mark_Keohane and if you like a punt on the rugby, there’s no better place to go than Marshalls Sport, where they offer you the chance to win in the Tri Nations, the Currie Cup Premier Division and the Rugby World Cup. You can call them on 0860077678/SPORT or log on to www.worldofsport.co.za/index.aspx
If all you want to do is rant or have a question answered, then do so at Keo@hsm.co.za Surprisingly, there weren’t that many of you in rant mood after the Boks’ Auckland defeat. But I know if they stumble in Wellington my inbox will be loaded and the best of the rants or rave reviews will make it into next week’s banter.
Stay good and keep the faith. Boks to win.
Keo
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